By Adrian Meredith
VICTORIA, Australia (TheSportsNext) September 16, 2012: The ICC World Twenty20 2012 (ICCWT20) is just a couple of days away and teams are currently busy flexing their muscles in the World T20 warm-up matches and since this is the most open tournament of all times, this is how Adrian Meredith sees the participants achieving the glory.
Sri Lanka:
As hosts, it should be easy. Home ground advantage will mean lots of spin-friendly wickets, and the team will be familiar with the conditions. Lasith Malinga is the leading wicket taker in all T20 (though not in internationals) so should be a big non-spinning drawcard, while the old guard of Dilshan, Sangakkara and Jayawardene will again be very dangerous. Thisara Perera has the ability to score at a very quick rate; but may not be solid enough to rescue them if they lose too many early wickets. Angelo Mathews potentially is one of the great all-rounders but thus far hasn't really produced consistently; but nonetheless he could be key. And then come the spinners - oh so many. Ajantha Mendis has one of the best records of all time yet some people have "worked him out" so he may only be good against minnows. Jeevan Mendis, Suraj Randiv and Herath are 3 that are going to get a heap of wickets and of course Dilshan can chip in as well. The big problem that they will have to try to avoid is what happens if too many key players fail? Sri Lanka tend to be top heavy, both with batting and bowling and there aren't many left to rescue them from disaster. If they can avoid that disaster in the big matches then they could well win this one. Or, of course, try to get some of the less well known players to step up.
South Africa
They are currently ranked number 1 in all types of cricket - or perhaps number 2, and have been there or thereabouts for oh so long, virtually since they came back to cricket in the early 1990s. Mark Boucher has recently retired; but this just means that the slightly less skilled keeper A B de Villiers can play - and de Villiers is a much better batsman, who has been playing purely as a batsman for many years now. They have solid players who double as big hitters, with the likes of de Villiers, Hashim Amla, Duminy and oh so many others that can just take the game away. Johan Botha can do some later order hitting too and of course Albie Morkel is known as a basher. They have T20 specialists like Morkel but also like Rusty Theron and then they have bowlers galore. In recent times they have significantly improved with their spin bowlers too, though they still rely primarily on their pacers. Jacques Kallis statistically is the second best all-rounder of all time, only behind Garfield Sobers, and while he is getting older and is known to be a bit slow between the wickets, he is nonetheless a huge bonus for the team. They really have no weaknesses. They can come back from early set backs, have so much variety in their bowlers, and so many players who can bowl, such that if one or two players have bad days or get unlucky, then they can recover. Their big problem is that they tend to fail in big tournaments, especially anything that says "World Cup". This says "World T20" so might not lead to a choke, but nonetheless it may. They would expect to get to the super 8 stage - they only need to beat Afghanistan to get there - and from there would expect to get to the semi finals. Then they just need to not choke. Just to make the final would show that they aren't choking. But they really would love to win this.
India
This isn't far from being at home and the conditions in Sri Lanka aren't so different to those in India anyway. India also have so many spinners and, unlike Sri Lanka, all their players are awesome against spin. Virat Kohli is a monster in the T20 game, as is Suresh Raina and let's not forget the guy that strikes at close to 90 even in test cricket in Virender Sehwag. MS Dhoni usually leaves his best games for when it matters. They are both solid bats and huge strikers and will consistently get enormous scores. While the top 7 are going to be bigger hits, they can still bash it around down the lower order too. Yusuf Pathan is known as a basher and Irfan Pathan isn't too bad either. And let's not forget Yuvraj Singh, player of the tournament in the victorious ODI World cup, who has just come back from cancer, who will undoubtedly inspire the team. Bowling, though, has always been India's weakness, but in conditions that suit them that disadvantage may not be as bad as it usually is. Zaheer Khan is one of few pacers who is good away from home, but at home they will all be good. India are getting better with pace bowling. They just need to avoid getting out for a low score, for they will struggle to defend them. For India, they will just need to keep piling on those massive totals. Also, of course, against the better batting sides, they will need to take wickets, at least those who are likely to get huge scores at quick rates. India have won a World T20 before, the inaugural one, and if they don't win this they should be pretty close. It'd be a shock if they didn't at least make the semi finals.
Pakistan
Pakistan have the top bowler in the world in Saeed Ajmal, who shockingly was denied as a contender for the cricketer of the year. Sure so Philander has had the best ever start to test cricket; but Philander doesn't play ODIs or T20s and surely there is room for 2 bowlers in the short list. Pakistan are going to be angry and will be wanting to prove that they are better than people think. The ICC snub may have even been planned secretly by Pakistan's authorities to inspire the team! Much like how the spot fixing spurred them on to bigger things, now Pakistan are going from better to best. Mohammad Hafeez is turning into one of the best all-rounders in the world while Shahid Afridi is being known more for his bowling - but we still know how great a batsman he can be. Umar Gul completes the trifecta of the 3 best bowlers in T20 cricket - or at least the 3 with the most wickets. And that is a pretty scary thought! Pakistan are going to get a lot of teams bowled all out for some pretty low scores - and if they don't get all out, they are going to struggle to get too many. Combine that with the striking of Razzaq, Afridi and the Akmal brothers, and they are going to be able to beat basically everyone. The key will be to stop those bad games. The games where they fail to get 100, or the games where all of their bowlers are found out. They are one of the most inconsistent teams in the world and to do well here they will need that consistency. They have the motivation and the skill to win this, they just need the consistency.
West Indies
West Indies have done so well under Sammy, in spite of it being at the expense of their best player Gayle; but now, with Gayle back - who has done so amazingly well while out of the West Indian team - they are really scarily good. They have some of the best strikers in the game in Pollard, Gayle and Dwayne Bravo, not to mention Andre Russell and of course Sammy can bash it too. They then have some solid bats like Darren Bravo and to top it all off have some scary super fast bowlers like Kemar Roach and Ravi Rampaul - plus of course Andre Russell. Dwayne Bravo, Pollard and Gayle can all bowl as well, meaning that they have many options. And to top it all off, they have now discovered a new spinner in Sunil Narine, who started off by being one of the leading wicket takers in his first ever IPL - then translated that to success at international level. Wow! They are going to get some enormous totals, and be able to chase down huge totals too. And they are going to be able to bowl some sides out very cheaply too. The problem is that they rely a lot on power, and less on consistency. Other than perhaps Shivnarine Chanderpaul they don't really have any other truly solid bats and while Gayle can get huge scores he can equally be out very cheaply. Their bowlers, similarly, can be fantastic or can be slogged all around. And they tend not to be too good at coming back from early set backs. To win the tournament, they are going to have to learn to come back when, inevitably, oppositions get on top of them. If they can do that, then they could go all the way. Otherwise, they are certainly going to be entertaining and you never know they might get lucky and never be in that situation.
England
Kevin Pietersen was the player of the tournament in their winning 2010 World T20 and now is no longer in the squad - in spite of still being their best player. He isn't injured nor is he out of form - and that will be a huge problem for them. Oppositions will use that against England, if nothing else. The other problem is that, other than Pietersen, they don't really have any truly great players, and have for the past 2 or 3 years relied primarily on team work. They have bowled tightly, rather than going for wickets, and batted slowly to preserve wickets, then bashed it about when they had the platform. It is annoying cricket. It shouldn't work. And yet in the 2010 tournament it did. Broad is a great exponent of annoying cricket but in the batting stakes both Bell and Trott have been masters of it. They have no bashers and no great strikers of the ball, yet they annoy teams out. Surely other teams have worked them out by now and they shouldn't be a threat. But you never know. Since the 2010 World T20 they have moved increasingly up the rankings, until they were briefly number 1 in all 3 formats - until South Africa took all 3 titles off them. The big problem for England is that they don't do well when playing away - as evidenced by their whitewash by India recently, having previously whitewashed India at home. England play a lot of games at home, and in the past 2 years in T20s have played 83% at home - more than any other team. With their ball, the Duke ball, currently being modified to be hugely different to balls used by others, home ground is probably the biggest advantage of any team. There will be no Duke ball in this tournament; so they shouldn't be any chance. And yet they are reigning champions and are ranked number 2. And, while Pietersen's absence may destabilise them, the fact of the matter is that everyone who has replaced Pietersen has done very well. So you never know.
Australia
The team is currently ranked number 9 - behind Bangladesh - and were recently as low as 10th - behind Ireland. And yet they just beat 3rd ranked Pakistan. In looking at the numbers, in the past 2 years they have only played against teams currently in the top 5, winning 5 and losing 9, and have also played 75% of the games away from home, one of the highest percentage of away games of any team. They are probably realistically about the 6th or 7th best team, not the 9th or 10th. However, away from home 6th or 7th isn't going to be good enough to lift the trophy. But back in 2010 they finished runners up - and were unbeaten until the final. But 2 T20 specialists in Shaun Tait and Dirk Nannes - two of the best T20 bowlers going around - aren't in this squad, nor is T20 specialist Mitchell Marsh, for disciplinary reasons. Dan Christian is there though, as are two of the best T20 batsmen in the world in David Hussey and Cameron White. Shane Watson and David Warner form perhaps the most formidable opening partnership in T20 cricket, both striking at over 140 (Watson over 150) and both averaging mid 30s. Then we get to 2 of the 3 leading scorers in domestic T20 cricket in David Hussey and Cameron White and finish it off with one of the best batsmen in world cricket in Michael Hussey. Glenn Maxwell may be a pretty ordinary bowler but as a batsman he sure can hit it. Matthew Wade is one of the better batsmen of keepers going around, and as a keeper may be the outright best at the moment. In the bowling stakes, they may be missing Tait and Nannes but they have some new bowlers in Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc, both with amazing records so far. Brad Hogg has recently come back from retirement in huge form Their batting line up is so long and so strong that they can come back from just about anything and they have so many huge bowlers, and so many options, that they can return from anything. The problem is that they have a tendency to lose the plot, to chew up too many bowlers and to bowl in a nothing way, letting teams rebuild from early failures. But this team is the team who historically is the best team in world cricket and it would be foolish to underestimate them. They only need to beat Ireland to qualify for the super 8s and they should be a good chance to make it to the semi finals and from there you never know. One of their great strengths is George Bailey, something of a professional captain, who probably rivals Darren Sammy as one of the best international captains. To back him up, Cameron White is probably a better captain again. They should be able to combine for some captaincy masterpieces and with this team they could easily win this tournament.
Bangladesh
Officially Bangladesh are still a minnow but they have been improving, especially in the past 2 or 3 years and they are going to be a lot better in the subcontinent than outside of it. Ranked 8th, their first big test will be whether they can beat New Zealand to claim a super 8 place - but they could well also beat Pakistan to claim top spot. Shakib al Hasan is obviously their best player - probably their 2nd best batsman and 2nd best bowler - but they also have Tamim Iqbal who can get some huge scores at a very good rate. Mahmudullah can be great, while they have such an army of spin bowlers, possibly the greatest spin bowlers in world cricket. In the right conditions, they could cut a swathe through virtually any batting line up and bowl them out cheaply, or else restrict them to such a tiny score. While they don't really have solidity in their batting, they do have a lot of players who can bash it for 2 or 3 overs. Winning the title is probably beyond them, as India and Sri Lanka in particular play spinners so well to nullify any advantage that Bangladesh have; but they are a very good chance to make the super 8s. Semi finals level would be unlikely but you never know. They do have a lot of holes, especially in their fast bowling; but with Mashrafe Mortaza in (he didn't play in the ODI World Cup) they will have filled in at least one hole. They could beat any team - including India and Sri Lanka - but could also lose to anyone - including minnows. The biggest minnows they are likely to face are New Zealand, though, so at least they won't be embarrassed if they lose to them. But they really should be aiming to at least make the super 8s and probably also the semi finals.
New Zealand
New Zealand are probably in the worst form that they have been in since the early 1980s. After the Fleming years, where they had such a great captain, then they had the Vettori years, where they had a captain that kept getting injured, and now they have the Ross Taylor years, with a guy who can bat very solidly, or bash it to unbelievable rates when required. This team on paper looks like they would struggle against minnows - with both Ireland and Afghanistan favoured to beat them - but, as is always the case with New Zealand, they find ways to win. They knocked out South Africa in the recent ODI World Cup to claim a semi final place, and seem to make the semi finals of all of these kinds of tournaments, or at least the vast majority. Besides Taylor and Vettori, they also have some big hitters like Brendon McCullum (the leading run scorer in international T20s) and Martin Guptil, and then have Tim Southee as a bowler, as well as James Franklin, who has recently become something of a T20 specialist. There are lots of holes but they kind of use those holes to trick opponents into a false sense of security. Sure, so they only have 3 or 4 batsmen of note, but then they spread them out, and, just when you least expect it, someone who is supposed to be terrible steps up. Ditto for bowlers. They have recently had a hard time against Bangladesh and will be quite worried by them in close to home territory - when New Zealand recently were whitewashed 4-0 in an ODI tournament - but the moment may call to them and perhaps they could instead beat Pakistan to qualify. Winning the tournament should be beyond them but they could at least keep the other teams honest. They look unlikely to make the semi finals, and are at best 50/50 to make the super 8s - but if they do get to the semi finals you never know.
Ireland
They aren't far away from being a test nation. It is a bit unfair in many ways since their women's team have been playing tests for many years now. But Ireland still rely primarily on players born overseas - especially Australian born. Some of their better players then get called up to play for England, like Ed Joyce previously did (now back with Ireland) and Eoin Morgan is still playing for England. Nonetheless, they themselves think that they are good enough, and they have easily the best record of any of the non-test nations - they win 3:1 against fellow minnows. They recently lost 3-0 against Bangladesh - in Ireland - and will be very angry about that. But to qualify for the super 8s they will need to beat either West Indies or Australia - and that will be very difficult. They have so many options though, batting all the way down, and bowlers galore, of so many different varieties. They don't really have out and out fast bowlers but they have lots of big triers, and spinners galore as well as medium pacers. Sri Lankan conditions may suit them too. They don't have a lot of big strikers but we all saw Kevin O'Brien score at 2 runs per ball in getting a match winning century against England in the last ODI World Cup; so they can do it. Luckily for them, the question will be asked early on - if they beat Australia in the opening match then they will probably make it to the super 8 stage. If they don't, then they still may be able to make it by beating West Indies. Australia are on a low so you never know.
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe haven't won a T20 international in the past 2 years, a rather depressing tale; but recently they came back to test cricket after a prolonged absence, and did very well, especially against Bangladesh. They have bowlers, such as spinner Ray Price, who is very highly rated, as well as Vittori. And then they have batsmen such as Brendan Taylor. The absence of Tatendu Taibu (who is now a priest) will be a big blow but they still have Masikenyeri. Realistically, they are unlikely to win a single match, or to qualify for the super 8s but in a short game they could get very lucky and make it. If they do, they are extremely unlikely to make it to the semi finals. But don't forget that they made it to the semi finals of 1 and super 6 stage of 1 other ODI World Cup, against the odds. This team probably isn't close to as good as those teams but nonetheless they will have that heart that will tell them that they could do it.
Afghanistan
What a pity that Afghanistan have probably the toughest group of them all, with hosts Sri Lanka and world number 1 South Africa. If they had been in the group with Pakistan, New Zealand and Bangladesh they may have been a chance. They wouldn't have minded being in with Australia, Ireland and West Indies even. But the draw is as it is. Afghanistan have just been so amazing lately. In the qualifying tournament they were unbeaten until the final, only losing to an Irish team that had a huge run of form - though Ireland had previously in the tournament lost to Namibia. Afghanistan's best player has been their wicket keeper Mohammad Shahzad, who can score huge runs at a quick rate, but they have both batsmen and bowlers who can do really well. They have never beaten a top level team though and at this stage in their development this may be an ask too far, up against the two favourites for the tournament in Sri Lanka and South Africa. Their aim, no doubt, will be to get close, to not be humiliated, to take it to the final over of each match, or at least the last 5. They do have a lot of confidence and a lot of belief. But even if they do somehow win a game, and somehow make the super 8s, it would be unbelievable to think that they could make the semi finals, let alone to win the whole tournament. They may not be the worst team in the competition - they are probably better than Zimbabwe and may even be better than Ireland, while they could probably challenge Bangladesh and New Zealand too - but they nonetheless are the team most likely to finish the team winless. It is a pity in many way.
Note: I listed the teams in order of where I think that they will finish.
