By Adrian Meredith
MELBOURNE, Australia (TheSportsNEXT) October 31, 2012: The teams have not been announced yet but we have a fair idea how they are going to go.
Team news:
Australia are expected to go with a spinner in Lyon and it is a choice of the in-form Mitchell Starc, who just got player of the tournament in the CLT20, but who is more well known as a limited overs bowler, or Ben Hilfenhaus, who is out of form, but is more well known as a first class specialist. Another factor is that Starc is left armed, which would add much needed variety, while Hilfenhaus is experienced, and with Siddle the only other bowler with more than 20 tests behind him, they may look for a 2nd experienced head.
South Africa still have 15 players to choose from but for them it seems likely that they will go in with a spinner, and their 3 pace bowlers - Morne Morkel, Dale Steyn and Vernon Philander - basically pick themselves. South Africa largely have a choice of Robin Petersen or Imran Tahir, as spinners. While Tahir has a great FC record and is something of an unknown to Australia, his test bowling average of 40 leaves a lot to be desired, while Robin Petersen adds batting depth but has a pretty ordinary record. They could yet go with all pace with Rory Kleinveldt in the squad, but when you have 3 pacers of the quality and form of Morkel, Steyn and Philander, it seems like it isn't really needed. In the batting stakes, they will probably go with JP Duminy, in spite of an ordinary record, largely because he did so well in Australia last time - but Jacques Rudolph may yet be fighting for his spot against Faf du Plessis - though ultimately Faf is more known as a limited overs specialist and the experience of Rudolph will probably win through. With AB de Villiers still under an injury cloud, there is the chance that he will be replaced, at least as keeper, by Tsolekile, either missing out entirely, or else de Villiers playing as a specialist batsman and probably Rudolph missing out.
Pitch and conditions:
Brisbane in times past was mostly for pace but had a "bit in it for everyone", with quality spinners able to extract something from it; but in recent times it has started to resemble the WACA more and more and is becoming a pace bowler's paradise. Perhaps that is more to do with the lack of quality spinners in the Australian domestic line up but the temptation would be huge to go in with all pace. South Africa have less of a worry as they will be confident that their top 3 will do enough pace between them not to need a 4th bowler, and they can play a spinner, even a poor one, just for the sake of variety - but it will be more of a worry for Australia, who don't have that quality. Australia's strength in fast bowling at the moment is their depth, and if they only have 3 fast bowlers then they lose that depth. Nathan Lyon did do well on this ground last year but whether that was a fluke or is something that is likely to be repeated is a big question marks. It certainly is going to be tough to bat on - especially against the fast men - and a draw looks very unlikely.
Players to watch for:
Ricky Ponting is back in rip roaring form, having just scored 160 not out in a FC match, and that was in amongst a rich vein of form. The question is whether he can translate that to test cricket. If he can, and can get anywhere near his best, then it could make a huge difference, not just to his ability to stay in the side but to Australia's chances of victory. Of the batsmen in the Australian team, he is probably in the best form of anyone, and, given that he is the 2nd best batsman in Australian history, that is very important indeed.
Matthew Wade will be under huge pressure after an avalanche of talk about whether or not he would keep his place in the team, in comparison to the last keeper, Brad Haddin. He deserves his spot but will be feeling a lot of pressure if he has paid even the slightest attention to media reports - not the least the comments by captain Michael Clarke and vice captain Shane Watson - both claiming that they preferred Haddin. Wade could respond to this by going into his shell, missing lots of chances, letting byes go through and batting terribly. Or he could come out firing. He was the only century maker in the recent test series in West Indies and is in some pretty good form; but it is a question of how he responds to this kind of pressure, and whether he can win over the Australian public.
Shane Watson is in unbelievable form in all formats, but especially in the shortest format, bowling amazingly well and batting ridiculously well. The question mark isn't whether he can translate this into test matches so much as if he can avoid getting injured. He needs a century to get his confidence up and if he can, and if he can avoid injury, he could be the difference between the two sides. But if he gets injured, especially if it is early in the match, then it could cost the team.
Vernon Philander is in amazing form, taking an absurd 63 wickets in his first 10 tests at a bowling average of 15.96! And he is listed as an all-rounder! It is the kind of form that surely can't be maintained but who knows when the bubble will burst? He is now considered a test match specialist, and his first class bowling average of 19.50 - compared to 30+ in ODI and T20 - suggests that maybe he is. Why is he so great at the long formats of the game yet so terrible at the shorter formats is anybody's guess. How someone listed as an all-rounder can be the best bowler in the world is another question again. But right now he has an air of immortality about him. If that is shattered, then it could fall apart in a heap. But if it can be maintained, let alone if it is strengthened, then it makes South Africa very, very hard to beat.
Dale Steyn was the number 1 bowler in the world, and by quite a margin after Murali retired. He has been so good for so long that many people forgot about him - but he just keeps on performing. Even when he doesn't seem to be doing much he still chips in with 1 or 2 wickets, or a sneaky 3 or 4 - then when in form he can take 5, 6, 7 or more. Such an accurate fast bowler he is always at you and he is developing that real intimidation factor. With Philander coming through he is taking a back seat somewhat but he should not be ignored. Even if Philander falls apart, Steyn is still good enough to win it by himself.
Hashim Amla was incredibly unlucky not to win the ICC player of the year award - and he probably would have if he hadn't missed half the year through injury. He is just about unstoppable in all 3 formats and his only competitors right now are Philander, Virat Kohli and Saeed Ajmal. He is such a great player. If he does fail, it is rare, and usually he still manages a sneaky 20 or 30 even when failing. But he can bat forever, can lift the side out of any kind of disaster, can bat quickly or slowly - the guy can do anything. He is a real game changer.
CONCLUSION:
The team line ups look quite similar. Australia's great weakness looks to be Ed Cowan - though Nathan Lyon could prove to be a huge weakness if he plays too - as could Hilfenhaus if he makes the cut. But South Africa have de Villiers, Rudolph and whoever they choose as a spinner as their weak points - not to mention that Smith is somewhat out of form too. South Africa have a better top 3 bowlers - but not by as much as you might think, as James Pattinson averages 18 in test cricket and isn't so far behind Philander, while Mitchell Starc (if he plays) isn't far behind - though he hasn't translated that into tests as yet. Australia probably have a stronger batting line up than South Africa - in spite of Cowan - but South Africa's bowling is overall ahead, especially if, heaven forbid, Starc misses out. There isn't much in it in either sense and even the wicket keeping is fairly tight, with A B de Villiers not far behind Wade purely as a keeper, but quite a distance ahead as a batsman. I still think that Quinton de Kock should be playing as the keeper!
At the end of the day this is in Brisbane, where Australia never lose. But this South African side don't care all that much about that kind of thing, and they could well defy the odds and do it.
It looks unlikely to be a draw - unless rain intervenes - but which way it will swing is anybody's guess.
I have South Africa ahead - just. But so many tiny things could happen to give it to Australia.
Certainly, Australia will have to be at their absolute best to win - and at least 2 or 3 players will have to play out of their skin to get them over the line.
And if South Africa are the team to bat out of their skins then they could do it instead.
But in a tight contest I have to go for my own country, and go for Australia. I am not very confident though!
